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「2023-11-28」Barcelona vs Porto Prediction


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Shakhtar Donetsk's Surprise Win Shakes Up Group H: Shakhtar Donetsk's recent victory over Barcelona has added unexpected excitement to Group H. Despite this, Barcelona and Porto are still seen as the favorites to advance. However, Porto faces a tough challenge as they prepare to play Barcelona at Camp Nou, where they are significant underdogs.

Porto's Crucial Match Against Barcelona: If Porto loses this match, their chance to qualify might depend on their final game against Shakhtar. Known for their solid defense and counterattacking strategy in Europe, Porto has previously frustrated Barcelona, limiting them to 21 attacking penalty area touches and only 1.3 expected goals (xG) in their last encounter. This defensive prowess could lead to a match with fewer scoring opportunities.

Barcelona's Inconsistent League Form: Barcelona's recent performance in their league has been mixed, with some close wins and a loss to Rayo Vallecano. Their main striker, 35-year-old Robert Lewandowski, has shown signs of decline, with a drop in his non-penalty expected goals and shot production. Barcelona also faces challenges in attack following their summer transfers. The return of Frenkie de Jong is a boost, especially for transition defense, but they might miss key goalkeeper Marc-Andre Ter Stegen, known for his exceptional shot-stopping.

Porto's Defensive Strength: Porto, along with Barcelona, ranks among the top six in the Champions League for the fewest expected goals conceded. They've been fortunate in scoring in the Champions League, benefiting from deflections and opponents' errors. Despite some good moments, their overall performance shows room for improvement.

Match Prediction - Barcelona vs. Porto: The current betting market overestimates Barcelona's attacking strength, and both teams have reasons to play a cautious game considering their group standings. It's crucial for both teams to avoid losing, which could benefit Shakhtar Donetsk. A win would keep Barcelona at the top of their group and might secure their place in the Round of 16. The prediction is for a low-scoring game, with less than 2.5 total goals being a good bet.

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